2026 HR Vulnerability Index

Highlights

Three findings, with their caveats.

1. 6.3

   1. Food services and accommodation have the highest HR Vulnerability Index¹

   Among the ten sectors presented, food services and accommodation have the highest index: 6.3 decisions favourable to workers per 100,000 payroll jobs over the study period.

   They are followed by private health care and social assistance at 3.9, manufacturing at 2.8, and administrative and support services at 2.5.

2. 49.7 %

   2. Observed outcomes vary considerably by sector

   Of the 147 decisions classified as favourable to one party across all sectors, 73 favour the worker, or 49.7%. The other 74 favour the employer.

   In food services and accommodation, 81.0% of decided cases favour the worker. In private health care and social assistance, the proportion is 66.7%. It is 36.4% in manufacturing and 27.3% in finance, insurance and real estate.

   These differences must be interpreted cautiously: sample sizes are small, and the mix of claims and adjudicative bodies differs across sectors.

3. × 2.3

   3. Employer representation is associated with different outcomes

   When the employer is identified as represented by a lawyer, 37.1% of decided cases favour the worker, compared with 72.7% when the employer is present without a lawyer. The employer success rate is therefore approximately 2.3 times higher with a lawyer.

   All nine decisions in which the employer is identified as absent favour the worker.

   This is an observed association. The data cannot establish how much of the difference is attributable to representation, case characteristics or other factors.

Summary and definition

Executive summary

Decisions issued by specialized labour tribunals offer a perspective on disputes between employers and workers. Analysing them describes the situations that reach the decision stage and their outcomes.

Employeur Plus presents the first edition of its HR Vulnerability Index, based on 150 recorded decisions involving Quebec’s private sector, issued between October 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026. The corpus comprises 109 decisions from the Tribunal administratif du travail (TAT), 35 arbitration awards and 6 decisions from the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB).

The central indicator relates decisions favourable to workers to total payroll employment in each sector.

Food services and accommodation have the highest ratio among the ten sectors analysed, followed by private health care and social assistance. They also show a high proportion of decisions favourable to workers. Manufacturing accounts for more decisions overall, but its index is lower once decisions favourable to workers are related to employment.

The study also presents outcomes by sector and employer representation. These perspectives are complementary: they describe, respectively, unfavourable decisions relative to sector employment, their proportion among decided cases, and the outcomes observed in different representation contexts.

The scope of this exercise remains limited. It is not a business survey, a census of all disputes, or a general measure of HR practice quality. Nor do the findings establish that one sector is inherently less compliant than another.

Section 1

1. Understanding the HR Vulnerability Index

What the index measures

For a given sector, the index is calculated as follows:

A value of 6.3 means that the corpus contains the equivalent of 6.3 decisions favourable to workers per 100,000 payroll jobs in the sector over the study period.

The unit of count is the decision. It does not necessarily correspond to a distinct employer or complaint: a decision may address several claims.

What the index does not measure

The index does not directly measure:

• the frequency of breaches within businesses;
• the individual risk of a complaint or an unfavourable decision;
• the severity of situations or their cost;
• all disputes, including those settled without a recorded decision.

It covers a nine-month period. Results are not annualized.

Section 2 · Sector index

2. Index findings by sector

Scroll the table horizontally to see all columns.

• Values are rounded to one decimal place. Their order is descriptive; it is not a statistically established ranking of sector risk.
• * For private health care and social assistance, employment corresponds to the official estimate of private-sector employees from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Other denominators come from the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH). All cover the full 2025 calendar year. Differences between these surveys limit the exact comparability of the ratios.

Food services and accommodation stand out in the corpus

The sector combines 21 recorded decisions, including 17 favourable to workers, with a smaller employment base than manufacturing. Its index is therefore higher than those of the other sectors in the table.

This observation does not identify the cause. The corpus does not systematically document business size, HR resources, prevention practices or the characteristics of the entire workforce.

Private health care and social assistance have the second-highest ratio

The 10 recorded decisions favourable to workers in this sector, relative to 254,100 payroll employees, produce an index of 3.9.

The scope includes health care and social assistance, not only clinics or care facilities. The finding relies on the current sector classification of decisions, some of which involve activities at the boundaries of several sectors.

A high volume of decisions does not necessarily produce the highest index

Manufacturing accounts for 34 decisions, compared with 21 in food services and accommodation. However, it has fewer decisions favourable to workers — 12 versus 17 — and a larger employment base.

Its index is therefore 2.8, compared with 6.3 in food services and accommodation. This illustrates what relating decisions to employment adds beyond a simple decision count.

The 17 decisions classified as “Miscellaneous” remain excluded from the index calculation because no corresponding denominator is available.

Section 3 · Decision outcomes

3. Decision outcomes by sector

The index relates decisions favourable to workers to employment. Another perspective examines their proportion among decided cases within the sector.

Scroll the table horizontally to see all columns.

• ¹ Decisions coded as favourable to the worker or employer. Two settlements and one decision classified as “other” are excluded from this calculation.
• ² Only two decisions: this finding cannot characterize the sector.

Outcomes also depend on the claims examined

Not all sectors have the same mix of TAT decisions, arbitration awards and federal decisions. The subject matter of claims also differs.

Across the entire corpus:

• 44 of 81 decided cases in the dismissal category favour the worker, or 54.3%;
• 21 of 38 in the prohibited practices category, or 55.3%;
• 7 of 25 in the psychological or sexual harassment category, or 28.0%.

A single decision may address several claims; these percentages are therefore not acceptance rates calculated complaint by complaint.

Section 4 · Employer representation

4. Outcomes by employer representation

Employer representation is recorded for 94 of the 150 decisions. Of these, 93 are classified as favourable to one of the parties.

Scroll the table horizontally to see all columns.

The difference between employers represented by a lawyer and those present without a lawyer is 35.6 percentage points in the observed decisions.

An employer success rate approximately 2.3 times higher

In the analysed decisions where the employer is present at the hearing and representation is known, the employer success rate is 62.9% with a lawyer (39 of 62 decisions), compared with 27.3% without a lawyer (6 of 22). The observed rate is therefore approximately 2.3 times higher with a lawyer.

An association that does not demonstrate a causal effect

These groups do not consist of equivalent cases assigned at random. They may differ in the nature of claims, employer resources, available evidence or other unmeasured characteristics.

The presence of a lawyer at the hearing also does not indicate what support was received before the dispute. Conversely, an employer appearing without a lawyer may have obtained advice beforehand.

These findings therefore do not establish that a lawyer reduces the risk of an unfavourable decision by 35.6 percentage points.

The direction of the difference also appears in the subset whose full text is marked as verified: 10 of 34 decisions favour the worker when the employer has a lawyer, compared with 6 of 9 when the employer is present without one. These numbers remain too small to isolate the effect of representation itself.

Section 5 · Methodology

5. Methodology, scope and limitations

Building the corpus

The analysis contains 150 decisions dated October 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026:

The file describes a scope covering private-sector employers in Quebec. The completeness of collection has not been confirmed by a third party. The corpus was not assembled through random sampling.

Defining outcomes

A decision “favourable to the worker” or “favourable to the employer” is one classified that way in the database. For mixed outcomes, the coding legend provides for classification based on the main matter. This binary classification does not capture every nuance: partial success, limited remedies or dismissal of some claims.

Outcome rates are calculated over 147 decisions. The other three entries — two settlements and one decision classified as “other” — are excluded from both numerator and denominator. They also do not contribute to the index numerator.

Employment figures used for the index

Reference employment figures are the 2025 annual averages for Quebec.

For nine sectors, the denominators come from Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0202-01, Employment by industry, annual, based on SEPH. The category selected is “All employees.” Retail trade corresponds exclusively to NAICS codes 44–45.

For private health care and social assistance, the denominator comes from Table 14-10-0027-01, Employment by class of worker, annual, based on the LFS. It corresponds to private-sector employees in “Health care and social assistance,” NAICS 62, all genders combined. Self-employed workers are excluded.

Using two surveys provides a figure specific to private employment in health care and social assistance. However, their concepts and methods differ: the LFS classifies people by their main job, while SEPH measures payroll employment through employers. The ratios are therefore descriptive reference points and do not ensure perfect comparability.

Some groupings are broad: professional and IT services combine “information and cultural industries” with “professional, scientific and technical services”; finance and real estate also include rental and leasing services. The denominators for administrative services and other services cover their full statistical industry categories.

These groupings provide a basis for sector normalization. They do not necessarily correspond exactly to the population legally subject to each recorded type of claim. Denominators from SEPH are not systematically restricted to private employers alone.

Key limitations

Partial validation

49 decisions were checked against their full text, and 101 rely on summaries that were not revalidated. Classification or transcription errors may remain.

Decision selection

The corpus does not represent all labour disputes. Settlements and matters without a recorded decision largely fall outside the analysis. The absence of a decision in the file does not establish the absence of a dispute.

Small numbers

Several sector findings are based on fewer than ten decisions. A few additional decisions or reclassification could substantially change the proportions and indices.

Sector classification

Findings rely on the sectors assigned in the database. Some activities lie at the boundaries of several categories, particularly in health care and social assistance. Checking denominators does not constitute a full revalidation of decision classifications.

Distinct legal frameworks

The TAT, grievance arbitration and the CIRB operate within different frameworks. Combining them provides an overall picture but limits direct comparisons between sectors.

Scope of the term “vulnerability”

In this study, the term refers to the descriptive indicator defined in section 1. It is neither a compliance diagnosis nor a validated measure of future risk.

Appendix · Sources and traceability

Appendix — Sources and traceability

• Decision database_donnees_decisions_RH_FINALE_150 (2).xlsx, version dated November 2, 2026, particularly the “Données,” “Légende” and “Audit” worksheets. The declared legal sources are SOQUIJ and CanLII.
• Payroll employment in nine sectorsStatistics Canada, Table 14-10-0202-01 — Employment by industry, annual, Quebec, 2025, all employees.
• Private payroll employment in health care and social assistanceStatistics Canada, Table 14-10-0027-01 — Employment by class of worker, annual, Quebec, 2025, private-sector employees, NAICS 62, all genders.
• ConsultationEmployment data were consulted on November 3, 2026. They may be revised subsequently.
• ReproducibilityThe findings can be reproduced using the “Secteur,” “Issue” and “Représentation de l’employeur” columns in the decision file, together with the sector employment figures in this report. The names of employers, workers and their representatives are not reproduced.